Saturday, December 11, 2004

Bozo in Paradise

David Brooks has been an embarrassment since the day he started writing for the New York Times op-ed page. He seems to think his job is to echo White House talking points (with an occasional stab at friendly advice), not to think and write about issues in any authentic sense. This means that he is a puppy dog, not a journalist.
Worse still is his ignorance, which reached a laughable level in today's Brooks column about Social Security.
Brooks claims that the idea of having the government issue debt to buy stock is supported by faith in markets, and seems ill-advised only if you don't trust markets.
But issuing $X billion of debt and buying $X billion of stock does not mean trusting markets - it means holding a position that financial markets value at zero. You own assets that the markets value at $X billion, and you issue debt that the markets value at $X billion. Yet you think, apparently, if you are as woebegone as Brooks, that you have stumbled on a bonanza - something that will do so well that you can wave your magic wand and evaporate $11 trillion of unfunded liabilities.
Brooks notes that stocks have a historic real return over some period of 4.6 percent, while the government can issue debt at a real interest rate of 2 percent. Voila, a big money bonanza from the difference between what you pay and what you earn. But this could only happen if markets are badly awry in how they value the two sides.
If he were minimally economically literate, he would have heard of something called a "risk premium." Riskier returns generally must offer a higher interest rate, because people don't like the risk. If you are long the riskier asset but short the safer asset, you have a positive expected return, but one that the market sensibly (given people's risk aversion) values at zero because the down side is nasty.
There actually is a plausible argument, although I don't buy it myself, for having the government issue debt and buy stock. It is based on what economists call the "equity premium puzzle," or the idea that stocks shouldn't offer quite so much of an extra return given their historical track record of fluctuation. But this is an argument for individual accounts based on the idea that markets have screwed up and that the government can therefore cleverly take advantage - not an argument based on faith that markets work.
David Brooks should go back to writing about tall skim no-whip frappuccinos with Madagascar cinnamon.

456 comments:

1 – 200 of 456   Newer›   Newest»
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As a foreword, I would agree that it is probably a very ill-advised idea; however ...

... isn't this kind of arbitrage engaged in routinely (albeit on a smaller scale, which may be the tipping factor?) If I can borrow against my home at 6% (leaving aside the complexities introduced by calculating the effect of the interest deduction) and make an investment that will return 8% (both after-tax) then does it not make sense to take the arbitrage? Yes, this is apparently a money-machine, but most arbitrageurs will be limited by the effect that past borrowing will have on their future rates - sooner rather than later the mortgage company will decide that my house is overleveraged and no longer good security for a 6% loan. It does seem, however, that there is some small margin for this arbitrage in principle.

Perhaps the greater problem with the idea is that it would have to be done on such a large scale that the markets would undo the benefit - undoubtedly the list of permissible securities the funds can be invested in will be public, leading others to put private money into those equities on the (ill-advised) assumption that the government knows what it's doing - that'll bring the return on those equities down, resulting a reduction of the apparent spread. Second, the markets might react quite differently to US debt if it was, in essence, being used to speculate in the stock market - it might (whether rightly or wrongly) be seen as somehow less safe than before, and the market may exact a higher interest rate, again narrowing the spread.

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I also sent it off to a good friend of mine.

p.s added you to my favorites take a moment to stop by insurance liberty life policy for I update it frequently

Mortgage said...

http://hottest-news.info/index.php

Jason said...

Well I have a vacation day this week and what better way to spend it surfing through blogs! I actually do this a ton to get ideas for my own blog. It seems that you keep your blog up to date and get some very good posts from users all over the place. If you don�t mind I added you to my favorites and you may want to grab my url and do the same. I am a busy dad but I do try to keep my site up to date with useful information and articles for you to read. Well back to surfing. Have a great day and thanks again from, cheap home owner insurance quote

Joe Berenguer said...

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It pretty much covers credit center related issues.
All the best!

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