I was speaking to a business audience today about what to expect out of Washington these days and a fellow speaker, who has some general connections and no particular axe to grind, offered odds of 5 or 6 to 1 against enactment of President Bush's Social Security plan. He also offered 3 to 1 odds in favor of the tax cuts being made permanent, but agreed with me that "permanent" means 4 years tops.
Asked about fundamental tax reform, such as replacement of the income tax by a VAT in the next two years, I compared it to the Eagles' chances of winning the Super Bowl by five touchdowns.
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
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The Byrd amendment means that tax law usually has a ten year, tops, window. I'm not sure it applies here (certainly did in the original passage of Bush cuts).
I give better odds on the tax cuts, and much worse on the social security deal. It's simply dead. The media has decided that they can criticize Bush on this matter, and the man did himself no service last night by using factually inaccurate language.
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