Monday, April 10, 2006

Prediction (with promise to fess up later if I'm proven wrong)

The U.S. is going to attack Iran this year. The timing will be set for maximum impact on the 2006 U.S. Congressional elections.

For extra credit: not a prediction, but I wouldn't be surprised by the use of tactical battlefield nukes. One important advantage is that this may help to smoke out Democratic opposition, or in the alternative make them more complicit.

Final point to keep in mind: this would lead to much greater protests than invading Iraq (potentially another advantage). Bush claims unlimited Commander in Chief powers to act domestically as he sees fit to prevent harm to the war effort.

45 comments:

Colin said...

There’s no way that the US would attack Iran around the elections. Congressional Republicans have spent the year distancing themselves from Bush, they’re going to keep doing it as long as his numbers stay down, and they won’t be in a position to say “A vote for me is a vote for our Commander in Chief” the way they would have in the past. Further, there’s good reason to believe that Congressional Democrats would be able to profit more from this than Republicans. In February, Rasmussen Reports announced that people favor Congressional Democrats over Bush on national security 43-41. Also Democrats can use the video clip of Chairman of the JCOS Peter Pace saying there’s no proof tying Iran’s government to Iranian weapons in Iraq.

Daniel Shaviro said...

I hope you're right.

Il_Duce said...

The last lefty predictions had the bombings taking place by March 20, 2006: just in time for the Israeli elections and the launchings of the Iranian Bourse (which was delayed). Before that, I believe it was predicted June of 2005. I am certainly a left winger, but they are wrong all the time.

Anonymous said...

We need to consider the role of religion in all this. It has been pretty reliably reported that Bush said that God told him to attack Iraq; maybe God is telling him to attack Iran, too. The religious zealots who have such prominence in this administration seem to think that any kind of apocalypse -- nuclear war, environmental destruction through global warming -- is nothing to worry about, since Jesus will come and send them to heaven in the midst of the crisis. It has got to be satisfying to be bombing Muslims in the name of God if you are a fundamentalist and sure that you are 100% right about everything.

Anonymous said...

We need to consider the role of religion in all this. It has been pretty reliably reported that Bush said that God told him to attack Iraq; maybe God is telling him to attack Iran, too. The religious zealots who have such prominence in this administration seem to think that any kind of apocalypse -- nuclear war, environmental destruction through global warming -- is nothing to worry about, since Jesus will come and send them to heaven in the midst of the crisis. It has got to be satisfying to be bombing Muslims in the name of God if you are a fundamentalist and sure that you are 100% right about everything.

mike livingston said...

For once, we agree on the prediction, although not necessarily the analysis. I would say the use of tactical nuclear weapons is about 1 in 3, although something of a macabre thing to bet on. The latter will be based mostly on military necessity. mal

Daniel Shaviro said...

Military necessity? With 100% certainty the military will be against it. So I think it is really Karl Rove's call. Again, I think the big argument in favor is to force the Democrats into opposition or else make them complicit.

People keep telliing me they can't do it - they've blown too much credibility and everyone is against it. But no one ever went broke betting against the current Administration's insanity and audacity. Once the bombs start flying, the whole political dynamic changes. If it goes well, Bush is a hero again. If it goes poorly, rally round the flag, boys.

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