Monday, January 17, 2005

Roger Lowenstein on Social Security

Overall, I thought Roger Lowenstein's New York Times Magazine cover story on Social Security was pretty good. In particular, it rebuts the sham rhetoric coming from the Administration about the supposed Social Security crisis that calls for private accounts. This rhetoric is sham because what we actually have is an overall fiscal crisis, to which Social Security makes a modest though not entirely negligible contribution, for which private accounts do nothing and which the Administration's proposals this year, especially if you count "tax reform," are likely to make a lot worse.
My main criticisms of the Lowenstein article are:
(1) it ought to say a bit more about the broader context, in particular rising healthcare costs and Medicare/Medicaid along with private sector care. Lowenstein laudably suggests that it might be better to do something more modest and traditional about Social Security finances than to do nothing, but that would be inadequate in a larger sense, reflecting the inadequacy of the Administration's purely Social Security-based approach to sustainability.
(2) Lowenstein takes the Social Security Trust Fund a bit too seriously. This year's excess of Social Security revenues over benefit payouts may conceivably encourage Congress to spend more, mainly by making the reported unified budget deficit look smaller (assuming Congress really cares about such things), or else by lowering a bit the amount of immediate third-party borrowing that the US government engages in. But the historical trust fund is water under the bridge, except insofar as the record that is kept of it influences political decisions. So when the trust fund "runs out" is only a paper or accounting event, not a real economic event apart from through its effect on perceptions or legal default settings.
3) You don't have to be a right wing idealogue to share conservatives' fears about the situation where the government explicitly owns stock, financed by issuing more debt, as a way of supposedly capturing the benefits of stock ownership without the administrative costs and lack of risk-sharing implied by 150 million private accounts. But I really don't see the point to the issue-debt-buy-stock transaction to begin with, whether done collectively or through the accounts. Objections include (a) after all the portfolio-shifting is done, nothing may really have happened, (b) if portfolios do change and issue-debt-buy-stock is a good idea, the government should do it without regard to the funding crisis, but I suspect it is not a very good idea - or more precisely that it is an idea whose merits are well captured by its net market value of zero, (c) if the idea is portfolio diversification for non-stockholders, note that both the government and all residents who are taxpayers/future benefit claimants already hold a large implicit position in the stock market via the government's fiscal stake in the economy.
Still, kudos to Lowenstein for avoiding the peril of most news reporting on current policy, which usually is limited to reporting Administration claims with no assessment of their truth content. As in, "Vice President Cheney stated that the Sun did not rise this morning. Cheney said this shows that we must give President Bush full martial law powers immediately." Then, buried in the fourth paragraph, "Some Democrats disputed Cheney's claim that the Sun did not rise this morning, and argued that even if Cheney is right giving the President full martial law powers is not an appropriate response."
Lowenstein avoided this by daring to depart from journalistic "objectivity" by noting that the Sun did rise and that martial law wouldn't help if it didn't rise.

228 comments:

1 – 200 of 228   Newer›   Newest»
Op Eds on IGR said...

Dan,

You wrote this on the Lowenstein article: "note that both the government and all residents who are taxpayers/future benefit claimants already hold a large implicit position in the stock market via the government's fiscal stake in the economy"

I'd like to hear your comments on using general revenue by way of a "permanent appropriation" to pay social security. Rather than make this implicit, let us try to make it more explicit.

Here are some ideas that come to mind. Besides the notion of separating people's thinking from the insurance metaphor (it is more a literature device for telling a story than true in fact), a pay-as-you-go system as we now have, if paid by general revenues would be deriving its cash more from taxation of the current stream of income (income, capital gains, tarifs, some human capital-fees, etc.). This may reflect the value of the economic infrastructure built by the prior generation of payers better than taxing solely on the incidence of labor as we do now.

The globalization of economies makes labor a poor base of taxation related to this payment stream since it clearly is much more susceptible to outside forces now than in 1935, 1955, or even 1985. The demographics also makes the human capital or labor-incidence tax obviously flawed, as the simple numbers of taxed workers to beneficiaries tell us. Labor may have been a good original base of taxation when it was a somewhat apt surrogate for overall economic performance. It isn't now.

Still, the pay-as-you-go system burdens current actors in the economy with the mathematics of the total benefits. I think it might be healthy analysis to look more at whether the prior generation under invested or poorly invested in its efforts to establish a viable economy, or did other things that affected economic growth. World war 2 destroyed a significant amount of wealth and economic potential in the world. Should the current generation pay for this ? Of course, the same sort of reasoning or analysis should be applied to current fiscal, taxation, and other policies and economic behavior to see if the next generation of beneficiaries ought to qualify for the same level of relative benefits based on what it is doing now. I realize hyperbole is a rhetorical device, but I think this sort of socio-political-economic-justice analysis gives people a better cause to be reasonable in trying to reach compromises.

So I am advocating that we eliminate a substantial portion of the current taxation of labor incidence (this is a human capital or labor investment fee more or less with a labor-hour unit basis) for these purposes and shift to broader forms of taxation that attach more to the economic rents coming from more traditional capital investments.

This probably means using the general income taxation system more instead. This seems to me to be a better representation now of whether the prior generation "invested" well or not, than burdening current labor markets to such a degree, especially when you consider that the exploding use of debt financing across the other areas of public policy means that many in the beneficiary generation effect a form of control over human capital markets now, AND in the future.

I doubt that the originators of the social security program considered this to be their purpose.

Thanks for the blog.

JimIGR

Daniel Shaviro said...

Jim - Interesting comment, raising issues I hadn't thought about before. Taxing economic rents, if one can do it, is appealing from an efficiency standpoint because taxpayers presumably create the rents anyway. And while an economist might consider them labor income at a conceptual level, they are presumably not in the payroll tax base much of the time (e.g., Bill Gates' stock appreciation from creating a mega-profitable company), whereas they should be in the income tax base.
I wouldn't give the same importance to the issue of whether a given generation invested enough, for a couple of reasons. One is that it wouldn't matter (other than via an incentive argument) from the utilitarian type of standpoint that I prefer. Another is that, say, my parents' membership in an age cohort that saw the massive destruction of World War II was certainly the fault of some people alive at that time (e.g., Hitler and his supporters), but it wasn't their fault. It's unfair or at least regrettable that anyone (everyone) has to bear the losses imposed on our world by WW I and WW II, not to mention innumerable earlier disasters, but I don't see the link to who among the living should have to bear it.
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