Only a complete fool could doubt that Bush was lying when he promised to fire whoever had done the Plame leak. Obviously he knew it was Rove (and perhaps Libby as well?), and was grandstanding because he figured he would never get called on it. Even back then, of course, he tipped his hand via the breezy indifference he couldn't help showing to whether the leaker was ever found.
I'm reminded of Nixon, of whom it was said that the way to detect a lie was to see if his lips were moving.
The complete stonewall they're doing now reflects their understanding of the news business, which is that if there aren't continual new twists on the story it inevitably dies. The wild card, of course, is whether Rove gets indicted.
I'm placing some hope not just on the Intelligence Identities Protection Act, which has been the most discussed, but on the Espionage Act, which says in relevant part:
"Whoever, lawfully having possession of, access to, control over, or being entrusted with any ... information relating to the national defense which information the possessor has reason to believe could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation, willfully communicates ... the same to any person not entitled to receive it ... [s]hall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both."
Pretty open and shut if Rove had "reason to believe" that outing Plame could injure the U.S. or aid any foreign nation.