Wednesday, September 23, 2026

NYU Tax Policy Colloquium: Pecoraro, Moore, and Splinter's "Are Laffer Curves Flat?"

 Yesterday at the NYU Tax Policy Colloquium we hosted Brandon Pecoraro and Rachel Moore, Joint Committee on Taxation economists who are two of the three co-authors (with David Splinter) of Are Laffer Curves Flat?, an empirical paper that deserves attention but that has actually – through no fault of their own – received it for the wrong reasons, rather than the right ones.

 Are Laffer Curves Flat? examines one main question. Suppose we were to raise the top individual rate on ordinary income, while keeping everything else entirely the same. What would be the revenue effects? In other words, where are we now, as compared to the peak of the Laffer Curve? It finds that, at present, given the 37 percent top individual rate plus a whole lot else – including other federal taxes and all state and local taxes – we are already close to the peak (which is actually, although it varies, close to 50 percent once everything else is all in). Thus, simply raising the top individual rate while doing nothing else whatsoever would raise very little, supporting the view that it wouldn’t accomplish a lot if the aim is to get more tax revenues from the top.

 

It is important to keep in mind (as the paper makes clear) that this is a very limited exercise. It says nothing whatsoever against a policy change that combined increasing the top rate with other base-broadening – pertaining, e.g., to the use of various income tax preferences (including but not limited to the vile §199A), the much lower corporate rate, and the long-term capital gains rate.

 

Given all that, a standalone rate increase at the top reminds me of a scene in the Mel Brooks movie Blazing Saddles. In the middle of the wide-open prairie, the villains install a tollbooth through which all the riders who are out there on horseback believe that they must pass. The joke is that there appears to be no reason why they would do this, as they could just go two yards to the left or right and get by without paying anything.

 

The relevance here of Mel Brooks’ joke is that it’s a bit like asking what would be the revenue-maximizing rate of his silly tollbooth, given how readily one can avoid it. The posited rate increase is so readily avoidable that one would be wholly unsurprised by its failing to raise extra revenue. Or to put it differently, any serious effort to raise more from the top 1% would be foolishly ill-designed if not accompanied by other measures that either (1) made incurring ordinary income subject to the rate less avoidable, or (2) raised the rates on types of income that could avoid bearing this rate.

 

This is no knock on the paper’s research design, as I’ll discuss in a moment. But it does open the door for intellectually dishonest people to misrepresent its findings and their significance.

 

Case in point, a Washington Post editorial some months back that cited the research as supporting the proposition that there is absolutely nothing to be gained by trying to increase taxes on rich people. You may have seen this editorial – I did at the time, and immediately recognized it (even though I hadn’t read the paper yet!) as dishonest garbage. 

 

A student in the colloquium class observed last week in our private class session on the paper that the editorial’s authors apparently hadn’t made it as far as to page 6 of the paper, if indeed they had read it at all. But perhaps this is unfair. The editorial wasn’t written for you or me. More likely, it was written for an audience of one – Jeff Bezos – and I would presume that he was quite happy with what his now captive, intellectually compromised Wa Po editorial page had dutifully churned out for him.

 

Although I am no expert on the empirical side, I found the paper’s result credible and (given the Mel Brooks problem) unsurprising. But that alone wouldn’t make it as valuable a contribution as I believe it is. Rather, its big contributions are at least twofold:

 

1) Taking advantage both of data that is available to the JCT and of the authors’ model-building, it builds in far more institutional detail that can yield more accurate and insightful empirical analyses. As the paper notes, the assumed tax bases that academic economists typically use in asking Laffer Curve-type questions tend to be either too broad or too narrow. For example, they may assume that the top rate applies to all capital income (despite the long-term capital gains rate and other favorable rules) or to none of it (despite the taxation of, say, short-term gains, interest, and unqualified dividends). The paper, by contrast, looks at what it calls the “true” tax base – i.e., what I might be more inclined to call the “actual” tax base, since by “true” they only mean that it matches what current law actually does. With this methodology, better-designed efforts to increase tax revenues from the top 1 percent could likewise be better-estimated than was possible under the prior state of the art.

 

2) It helps to show that there is no such thing as a “natural” Laffer Curve that applies at all times and places to a given instrument such as the federal income tax. The Laffer Curve at any time is endogenous; what is actually being taxed and how, including the relative treatment of adjoining “lanes” in a given instance, will drive the result. In short, the Laffer Curve is to a degree what we make it, even if also reflecting such hard-to-control inputs as people’s attitudes towards labor supply.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Budgetary effects of giving every adult American citizen $5,000

Not to take blather too seriously, but ... 

Suppose that, in early 2027, Congress passed a law saying that each adult American citizen should get a $5,000 check. (Although, I don't mean to presume here that the Trump Administration believes that any such legislative authorization is necessary, as opposed to presidential decree). Given that there are about 270 million adult American citizens, this would cost about $1.35 trillion.

That is more than 4 percent of projected GDP. For 2026 the projected federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion. If 2027 is otherwise similar, this would raise it to 3.25 trillion, or more than 10% of projected GDP. The final amount would then be added to outstanding federal public debt that already exceeds $40 trillion. 

I suppose that one might plausibly expect a contractionary response from the Fed, given current inflationary concerns. A further question of interest is how the bond markets would respond (I have a guess).

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

NYU Tax Policy Colloquium schedule, updated

Since I'll be blogging about this semester's NYU Tax Policy Colloquium papers, here is an updated schedule for the semester

2026 NYU TAX POLICY COLLOQUIUM SPEAKER DATES

All sessions meet on Tuesdays from 4:15 to 6:15 pm in Furman 216 at NYU Law School, and are followed by a small group dinner with the speaker(s).

1)    September 8: Adam Kern, University of San Diego Law School, Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution(co-authored by Daniel Hemel).

2)    September 22: Brandon Pecoraro and Rachel Moore, Joint Committee on Taxation, Is the Laffer Curve Flat? (co-authored by David Splinter).

3)    October 6: Miranda Stewart, NYU Law School and Melbourne Law School, International Tax Law and the Equilibrium Between States and Corporations.

4)    October 20: Chye-Ching Huang, NYU Tax Law Center, How to AI-Proof the Tax System

5)    November 10: Michael Love, Columbia Law School, The Partnership Automation Gap in U.S. Tax Enforcement.

6)    November 24Susan Morse, University of Texas, Are Tariffs Taxes?

NYU Tax Policy Colloquium: Daniel Hemel’s and Adam Kern’s Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution

 Yesterday afternoon, we held the first public session of the 2026 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium, now in its 32ndconsecutive year. The paper we discussed was Daniel Hemel’s and Adam Kern’s Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution, which is forthcoming in the Texas Law Review.

For some years I used to write blogposts regarding each paper that we discussed in the Colloquium – based on the papers themselves, not the public sessions, because the latter are off-the-record.

I stopped doing this a couple of years ago because I was finding the time demands of posting difficult to meet. This reflected that, while my comments here are somewhat casual and off-the-cuff, and by no means require or receive the standard of care that I would demand of myself if I were writing a publishable piece, they also aimed at being thorough and fair – meaning that they took a bit of time to do properly.

This year, I expect to find that I’m able to post after each public session. The difference is that I am once again (alas, for what I think is the last time) co-teaching the colloquium with Lily Batchelder. With her sharing the responsibilities, I get just enough relief to be able to add this to my list of things to do.

So anyway, back to Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution. Let me note up front that the authors are not only friends whom I know well, but rightly prominent in tax law academia, each ranking among the very best scholars in (at a minimum) his particular age cohort. That said, I had some problems with the article. But there is something institutionally of note about this. The article’s flaws, if that’s not too strong – or, to put it more neutrally, the ways in which it was not written to my personal taste – reflected the incentives for tax and other legal scholarship that arise because of the role that student law reviews play in the publication process.

How do you “sell” an article to leading law reviews? Perhaps the best formula there is, which this article follows, is to say something like the following: “Everyone thinks X is the right way to think about this set of issues. But that’s all wrong. Actually, the right framework is Y. By showing that Y, rather than X, is correct, this article fundamentally changes the conventional wisdom.”

And it’s better still if one can show that adopting Y in lieu of X has lots of important applications, including to a few of the hot legal topics of the day. 

The article aims to do all this, in my view not always entirely convincingly. In doing so, it potentially obscures the valuable contribution that it does in fact make, which is as follows:

In a federal system with overlapping national and sub-national governments, a question arises as to how the different levels should coordinate their tax systems. Suppose, for example, that they each might tax income, consumption, real property, wealth generally, cross-border trade, and the like, Under a “separate the bases” view, distinct tax bases should be assigned to each level. (For convenience, let’s just say this concerns the national level and top subnational level, such as states in the U.S. or provinces in some other countries, amalgamating “local” with “state” for convenience.) Thus, we might have only the feds taxing income, and only the states taxing real property, to give one possible implication.

The paper rejects the “separate the bases” generalization, which it characterizes (with some hedging) as the conventional wisdom. It urges instead that tax base assignment to the different levels turn on what it calls the “relative externalities principle.” Here the claim is that, when both levels tax the same base, there is both a positive externality and a negative one. The negative one (emphasized by “separate the bases” devotees) is that, by “overgrazing” the same base, the two levels both cost each other revenue and increase the efficiency costs of the tax, given that taxpayers will presumably respond to the overall marginal rate they face. But there is also a positive externality from enforcement synergies that arise from both levels’ administering the same thing. For example, if one level finds an erroneously excluded wage item, the other level will presumably benefit as well.

There’s lots more – for example, a historical review of the U.S. Constitution’s Direct Tax clause, and a game theory section showing that, say, the U.S. national government might conceivably increase, rather than reduce, its overall power and influence versus that of the states by binding itself, say, not to directly tax real property. This part I won’t discuss here, but I found the setup a bit artificial to support applying the conclusion to such real world settings as the Direct Tax clause’s relevance today to the constitutionality of an unapportioned federal wealth tax (or a tax on unrealized income from real property).

Okay, back to the sales pitch of “The conventional wisdom says separate the bases, but that’s wrong and we should instead follow the relative externalities principle.” I have an objection to each. 

For the claim about the CW, it’s that I don’t think “separate the bases” is indeed the conventional wisdom in tax law scholarship. If it were, there would be lots more talk about how, say, since the federal government taxes income the states should get out of the business and cease doing so. But OK, as the paper shows, there is an economics sub-literature or two in which this may indeed be the CW – even though, as the paper notes, such still-relevant landmark economics work in the field as that of Richard Musgrave and Wallace Oates expressly rejects the “separate the bases” principle. So here it’s just a bit of overselling that the student law review editors might be expected to love. (Sorry, I mean no disrespect of these talented, earnest, and hardworking individuals who are quite reasonably trying to position their journals as full of significant must-reads. It’s just that they’re reading in dozens of distinct fields which they can’t possibly know well. The problem is the system, not the individuals.)

Perhaps more importantly, I have a core problem with some of the paper’s discussion regarding how best to implement the relative externalities principle. In a word, or rather three, I discern a problem that I’ll call tax base essentialism. To some extent, the paper treats legally distinct types of formal tax bases – for example, an income tax and a real property tax, although one might also add consumption taxes, wealth taxes, tariffs, and the like – as if they were, in effect, distinct fundamental subatomic particles. By analogy, this is what a standard optimal income tax analysis does with such fundamental subatomic particles as having a wage rate and choosing between work/market consumption and leisure. But those are truer subatomic particles than the income tax, the real property tax, and the like, which are complex multipart instruments with substantially overlapping, and often widely varying, incentive effects and administrative / enforcement features.

To apply what I call the “battle of the externalities” as between discrete tax bases, rather than to all choices generally, one would need each tax base to be unique and distinctive in 2 ways:

(a) what it disincentivizes for the negative externality, 

(b) the enforcement overlap for the positive externality.

Each of these preconditions can be questioned.

The paper agrees that taxing one base can crowd out revenues from another base, not just from the same one. But this is not just a side-problem – it’s fundamental.

In the abstract, what activities do these tax bases, as considered in the abstract, deter or burden or disincentivize?

A consumption tax, such as a retail sales tax or a value-added tax, deters work (which generates earnings that can be used for market consumption).

An income tax deters work and saving.

A wealth tax deters work and saving.

A real property tax deters work and saving and the use of real estate for consumption or investment.

A tariff: deters work and saving (the latter, since it applies to business inputs), and cross-border activity.

Given these overlaps, I think the over-grazing problem can’t best be analyzed at the tax base level. Rather, it calls for looking more narrowly at particular applications. For example, income taxation of home ownership overlaps more with real property taxation than does income taxation of financial assets, since work and saving are common to all but the real estate aspect arises in the one income tax application but not the other.

Let’s turn now to administrative overlaps. Here the issue is that positive (and perhaps also negative) administrative and enforcement spillovers may apply between different tax bases, not just the same ones. For example, in a country with a VAT, some of the same information may aid with both income tax and VAT enforcement. This may also happen to a degree in the U.S. as between income taxes, and either or both of retail sales taxes and real property taxes.

A further problem that I’d attribute to tax base essentialism pertains to the question of which levels of government are good or bad at administering particular tax bases. Consider the classic mixed case of wealth. States and localities may be better than the feds at valuing and taxing local real estate. But surely the feds are better at, say, tracking down financial assets. So, for a wealth tax, while the feds might do it better overall, one of its elements might be done better at the state and local level.

This is of interest in relation to the paper’s analysis of why it might make sense for the feds to renounce real property taxation, leaving it to the states so as to influence their tax base choices in ways that the feds might conceivably care about. With wealth taxation having multiple parts, some of which are better left to the states than others, one gets a mixed verdict as to whether federal renunciation makes sense here. Whether or not a federal wealth tax is a good idea (which turns on issues wholly apart from federalism), it shouldn’t be renounced for federalism reasons even if there is a piece of it that might wisely be renounced if considered in isolation.

There’s lots more, well worth reading even though I don’t agree with it all, but perhaps this is enough discussion for here.

Thursday, June 11, 2026

2026 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium

Here is the schedule of public sessions at the fall 2026 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium:

2026 NYU TAX POLICY COLLOQUIUM SPEAKER DATES

All sessions meet on Tuesdays from 4:15 to 6:15 pm in Furman 216 at NYU Law School, and are followed by a small group dinner with the speaker(s).

1)    September 8: Adam Kern, University of San Diego Law School, Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution(co-authored by Daniel Hemel).

2)    September 22: Brandon Pecoraro and Rachel Moore, Joint Committee on Taxation, Is the Laffer Curve Flat? (co-authored by David Splinter).

3)    October 6: Miranda Stewart, NYU Law School and Melbourne Law School, TBD.

4)    October 20: Chye-Ching Huang, NYU Tax Law Center, TBD

5)    November 10: Michael Love, Columbia Law School, Taxing Complexity

6)    November 24: Lily Batchelder, NYU Law School, TBD. 

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Short comment paper published, responding to Gabriel Zucman's global billionaire minimum tax proposal

Intertax has just published and posted a new article of mine responding to Gabriel Zucman's global billionaire minimum tax proposal. Available here. Title and citation: Belling the Cat? A Response to Gabriel Zucman’s Billionaire Minimum Tax Proposal, 54 Intertax 24-32 (2026). 

The abstract goes something like this: Gabriel Zucman’s global billionaire minimum tax proposal has significant merit in the realm of ideas to place in the progressive tax policy tool chest. While, if I were the global tax policy czar, I might change it in various ways, I would nonetheless support its adoption as is, relative to the alternative of simply doing nothing about the rise of extreme high-end inequality. If, in the end, it fails to offer a politically promising path forward, as I fear that it does, the fault lies not with its proponent, but with the political realities of our troubled times.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Paper influenced by Alan Auerbach

The following is the text of some brief remarks that I offered at a conference in Berkeley last Friday honoring Alan Auerbach upon his retirement. Guidelines for these remarks suggested that one discuss recent work of one's own that reflected Alan's influence and intellectual presence in any of his multiple fields.


My most recent, though hardly my only, Alan-influenced, piece is called Time Is, Time Was: Evaluating the Use of the Life Cycle Model as a Fiscal Policy Tool, which recently appeared in an Elgar Research Volume on Law & Time. It responds to Alan’s important recent work with Larry Kotlikoff & Darryl Koehler, using intra-generational accounting to measure US economic inequality & fiscal progressivity.

Alan’s work with Larry and Koehler (which I’ll call AKK to save time) does this by using lifetime spending power, in lieu of such snapshot measures as income or wealth. It finds less economic inequality, and more progressivity, than you’d find using the snapshot metrics. I would guess that not all members of the Berkeley Economics faculty, even limiting it to those in this room, agree 100% with the paper’s analysis. But the analysis would simply be right, leaving nothing further to discuss, if one fully granted the premises that, over the full lifecycle, people exercise consistent rational choice, in the presence of complete markets, leaving aside liquidity constraints.

In a standard analysis of consumer choice between, say, movies and pizza, people seek to equalize the marginal utility of the last unit they consume of each commodity. AKK applies the same approach to consumption in different periods, on the view – surely correct – that these are in effect separate “commodities,” each subject to its own declining marginal utility as one consumes more of them. But my piece argues that equalizing marginal utility across periods is considerably more challenging than doing so for movies and pizza, and also is subject to various heuristics & decisional metrics that would be irrational in the absence of real world decision costs. Plus, changes in information that aren’t fully insurable may have an impact.

I conclude that the underlying model, under which it basically doesn’t matter when one earns a dollar, in determining when one spends it, is not sufficiently descriptively accurate to be treated as more than an important orienting benchmark. Like such other “it doesn’t matter” theories as the Coase Theorem, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and the Modigliani-Miller Theorem, its value lies more in its showing us where to look for falsifying conditions, than in its full empirical validity.

Does this mean that we should keep on using traditional snapshot metrics such as income and consumption after all? Not at all. They still have all the flaws that AKK rightly attribute to them.

I conclude that there is no simple answer to the question of how lifetime, as opposed to shorter periods (themselves requiring further definition) should be used in measuring economic inequality, fiscal progressivity, or the question of why (and how much) inequality matters. Indeed, perhaps more important than any particular conclusion is the need for continuing methodological humility and agnosticism in how we think about these issues.