Thursday, September 10, 2026

Budgetary effects of giving every adult American citizen $5,000

Not to take blather too seriously, but ... 

Suppose that, in early 2027, Congress passed a law saying that each adult American citizen should get a $5,000 check. (Although, I don't mean to presume here that the Trump Administration believes that any such legislative authorization is necessary, as opposed to presidential decree). Given that there are about 270 million adult American citizens, this would cost about $1.35 trillion.

That is more than 4 percent of projected GDP. For 2026 the projected federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion. If 2027 is otherwise similar, this would raise it to 3.25 trillion, or more than 10% of projected GDP. The final amount would then be added to outstanding federal public debt that already exceeds $40 trillion. 

I suppose that one might plausibly expect a contractionary response from the Fed, given current inflationary concerns. A further question of interest is how the bond markets would respond (I have a guess).

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

NYU Tax Policy Colloquium schedule, updated

Since I'll be blogging about this semester's NYU Tax Policy Colloquium papers, here is an updated schedule for the semester

2026 NYU TAX POLICY COLLOQUIUM SPEAKER DATES

All sessions meet on Tuesdays from 4:15 to 6:15 pm in Furman 216 at NYU Law School, and are followed by a small group dinner with the speaker(s).

1)    September 8: Adam Kern, University of San Diego Law School, Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution(co-authored by Daniel Hemel).

2)    September 22: Brandon Pecoraro and Rachel Moore, Joint Committee on Taxation, Is the Laffer Curve Flat? (co-authored by David Splinter).

3)    October 6: Miranda Stewart, NYU Law School and Melbourne Law School, International Tax Law and the Equilibrium Between States and Corporations.

4)    October 20: Chye-Ching Huang, NYU Tax Law Center, How to AI-Proof the Tax System

5)    November 10: Michael Love, Columbia Law School, The Partnership Automation Gap in U.S. Tax Enforcement.

6)    November 24Susan Morse, University of Texas, Are Tariffs Taxes?

NYU Tax Policy Colloquium: Daniel Hemel’s and Adam Kern’s Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution

 Yesterday afternoon, we held the first public session of the 2026 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium, now in its 32ndconsecutive year. The paper we discussed was Daniel Hemel’s and Adam Kern’s Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution, which is forthcoming in the Texas Law Review.

For some years I used to write blogposts regarding each paper that we discussed in the Colloquium – based on the papers themselves, not the public sessions, because the latter are off-the-record.

I stopped doing this a couple of years ago because I was finding the time demands of posting difficult to meet. This reflected that, while my comments here are somewhat casual and off-the-cuff, and by no means require or receive the standard of care that I would demand of myself if I were writing a publishable piece, they also aimed at being thorough and fair – meaning that they took a bit of time to do properly.

This year, I expect to find that I’m able to post after each public session. The difference is that I am once again (alas, for what I think is the last time) co-teaching the colloquium with Lily Batchelder. With her sharing the responsibilities, I get just enough relief to be able to add this to my list of things to do.

So anyway, back to Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution. Let me note up front that the authors are not only friends whom I know well, but rightly prominent in tax law academia, each ranking among the very best scholars in (at a minimum) his particular age cohort. That said, I had some problems with the article. But there is something institutionally of note about this. The article’s flaws, if that’s not too strong – or, to put it more neutrally, the ways in which it was not written to my personal taste – reflected the incentives for tax and other legal scholarship that arise because of the role that student law reviews play in the publication process.

How do you “sell” an article to leading law reviews? Perhaps the best formula there is, which this article follows, is to say something like the following: “Everyone thinks X is the right way to think about this set of issues. But that’s all wrong. Actually, the right framework is Y. By showing that Y, rather than X, is correct, this article fundamentally changes the conventional wisdom.”

And it’s better still if one can show that adopting Y in lieu of X has lots of important applications, including to a few of the hot legal topics of the day. 

The article aims to do all this, in my view not always entirely convincingly. In doing so, it potentially obscures the valuable contribution that it does in fact make, which is as follows:

In a federal system with overlapping national and sub-national governments, a question arises as to how the different levels should coordinate their tax systems. Suppose, for example, that they each might tax income, consumption, real property, wealth generally, cross-border trade, and the like, Under a “separate the bases” view, distinct tax bases should be assigned to each level. (For convenience, let’s just say this concerns the national level and top subnational level, such as states in the U.S. or provinces in some other countries, amalgamating “local” with “state” for convenience.) Thus, we might have only the feds taxing income, and only the states taxing real property, to give one possible implication.

The paper rejects the “separate the bases” generalization, which it characterizes (with some hedging) as the conventional wisdom. It urges instead that tax base assignment to the different levels turn on what it calls the “relative externalities principle.” Here the claim is that, when both levels tax the same base, there is both a positive externality and a negative one. The negative one (emphasized by “separate the bases” devotees) is that, by “overgrazing” the same base, the two levels both cost each other revenue and increase the efficiency costs of the tax, given that taxpayers will presumably respond to the overall marginal rate they face. But there is also a positive externality from enforcement synergies that arise from both levels’ administering the same thing. For example, if one level finds an erroneously excluded wage item, the other level will presumably benefit as well.

There’s lots more – for example, a historical review of the U.S. Constitution’s Direct Tax clause, and a game theory section showing that, say, the U.S. national government might conceivably increase, rather than reduce, its overall power and influence versus that of the states by binding itself, say, not to directly tax real property. This part I won’t discuss here, but I found the setup a bit artificial to support applying the conclusion to such real world settings as the Direct Tax clause’s relevance today to the constitutionality of an unapportioned federal wealth tax (or a tax on unrealized income from real property).

Okay, back to the sales pitch of “The conventional wisdom says separate the bases, but that’s wrong and we should instead follow the relative externalities principle.” I have an objection to each. 

For the claim about the CW, it’s that I don’t think “separate the bases” is indeed the conventional wisdom in tax law scholarship. If it were, there would be lots more talk about how, say, since the federal government taxes income the states should get out of the business and cease doing so. But OK, as the paper shows, there is an economics sub-literature or two in which this may indeed be the CW – even though, as the paper notes, such still-relevant landmark economics work in the field as that of Richard Musgrave and Wallace Oates expressly rejects the “separate the bases” principle. So here it’s just a bit of overselling that the student law review editors might be expected to love. (Sorry, I mean no disrespect of these talented, earnest, and hardworking individuals who are quite reasonably trying to position their journals as full of significant must-reads. It’s just that they’re reading in dozens of distinct fields which they can’t possibly know well. The problem is the system, not the individuals.)

Perhaps more importantly, I have a core problem with some of the paper’s discussion regarding how best to implement the relative externalities principle. In a word, or rather three, I discern a problem that I’ll call tax base essentialism. To some extent, the paper treats legally distinct types of formal tax bases – for example, an income tax and a real property tax, although one might also add consumption taxes, wealth taxes, tariffs, and the like – as if they were, in effect, distinct fundamental subatomic particles. By analogy, this is what a standard optimal income tax analysis does with such fundamental subatomic particles as having a wage rate and choosing between work/market consumption and leisure. But those are truer subatomic particles than the income tax, the real property tax, and the like, which are complex multipart instruments with substantially overlapping, and often widely varying, incentive effects and administrative / enforcement features.

To apply what I call the “battle of the externalities” as between discrete tax bases, rather than to all choices generally, one would need each tax base to be unique and distinctive in 2 ways:

(a) what it disincentivizes for the negative externality, 

(b) the enforcement overlap for the positive externality.

Each of these preconditions can be questioned.

The paper agrees that taxing one base can crowd out revenues from another base, not just from the same one. But this is not just a side-problem – it’s fundamental.

In the abstract, what activities do these tax bases, as considered in the abstract, deter or burden or disincentivize?

A consumption tax, such as a retail sales tax or a value-added tax, deters work (which generates earnings that can be used for market consumption).

An income tax deters work and saving.

A wealth tax deters work and saving.

A real property tax deters work and saving and the use of real estate for consumption or investment.

A tariff: deters work and saving (the latter, since it applies to business inputs), and cross-border activity.

Given these overlaps, I think the over-grazing problem can’t best be analyzed at the tax base level. Rather, it calls for looking more narrowly at particular applications. For example, income taxation of home ownership overlaps more with real property taxation than does income taxation of financial assets, since work and saving are common to all but the real estate aspect arises in the one income tax application but not the other.

Let’s turn now to administrative overlaps. Here the issue is that positive (and perhaps also negative) administrative and enforcement spillovers may apply between different tax bases, not just the same ones. For example, in a country with a VAT, some of the same information may aid with both income tax and VAT enforcement. This may also happen to a degree in the U.S. as between income taxes, and either or both of retail sales taxes and real property taxes.

A further problem that I’d attribute to tax base essentialism pertains to the question of which levels of government are good or bad at administering particular tax bases. Consider the classic mixed case of wealth. States and localities may be better than the feds at valuing and taxing local real estate. But surely the feds are better at, say, tracking down financial assets. So, for a wealth tax, while the feds might do it better overall, one of its elements might be done better at the state and local level.

This is of interest in relation to the paper’s analysis of why it might make sense for the feds to renounce real property taxation, leaving it to the states so as to influence their tax base choices in ways that the feds might conceivably care about. With wealth taxation having multiple parts, some of which are better left to the states than others, one gets a mixed verdict as to whether federal renunciation makes sense here. Whether or not a federal wealth tax is a good idea (which turns on issues wholly apart from federalism), it shouldn’t be renounced for federalism reasons even if there is a piece of it that might wisely be renounced if considered in isolation.

There’s lots more, well worth reading even though I don’t agree with it all, but perhaps this is enough discussion for here.

Thursday, June 11, 2026

2026 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium

Here is the schedule of public sessions at the fall 2026 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium:

2026 NYU TAX POLICY COLLOQUIUM SPEAKER DATES

All sessions meet on Tuesdays from 4:15 to 6:15 pm in Furman 216 at NYU Law School, and are followed by a small group dinner with the speaker(s).

1)    September 8: Adam Kern, University of San Diego Law School, Separation of Bases and the Fiscal Constitution(co-authored by Daniel Hemel).

2)    September 22: Brandon Pecoraro and Rachel Moore, Joint Committee on Taxation, Is the Laffer Curve Flat? (co-authored by David Splinter).

3)    October 6: Miranda Stewart, NYU Law School and Melbourne Law School, TBD.

4)    October 20: Chye-Ching Huang, NYU Tax Law Center, TBD

5)    November 10: Michael Love, Columbia Law School, Taxing Complexity

6)    November 24: Lily Batchelder, NYU Law School, TBD. 

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Short comment paper published, responding to Gabriel Zucman's global billionaire minimum tax proposal

Intertax has just published and posted a new article of mine responding to Gabriel Zucman's global billionaire minimum tax proposal. Available here. Title and citation: Belling the Cat? A Response to Gabriel Zucman’s Billionaire Minimum Tax Proposal, 54 Intertax 24-32 (2026). 

The abstract goes something like this: Gabriel Zucman’s global billionaire minimum tax proposal has significant merit in the realm of ideas to place in the progressive tax policy tool chest. While, if I were the global tax policy czar, I might change it in various ways, I would nonetheless support its adoption as is, relative to the alternative of simply doing nothing about the rise of extreme high-end inequality. If, in the end, it fails to offer a politically promising path forward, as I fear that it does, the fault lies not with its proponent, but with the political realities of our troubled times.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Paper influenced by Alan Auerbach

The following is the text of some brief remarks that I offered at a conference in Berkeley last Friday honoring Alan Auerbach upon his retirement. Guidelines for these remarks suggested that one discuss recent work of one's own that reflected Alan's influence and intellectual presence in any of his multiple fields.


My most recent, though hardly my only, Alan-influenced, piece is called Time Is, Time Was: Evaluating the Use of the Life Cycle Model as a Fiscal Policy Tool, which recently appeared in an Elgar Research Volume on Law & Time. It responds to Alan’s important recent work with Larry Kotlikoff & Darryl Koehler, using intra-generational accounting to measure US economic inequality & fiscal progressivity.

Alan’s work with Larry and Koehler (which I’ll call AKK to save time) does this by using lifetime spending power, in lieu of such snapshot measures as income or wealth. It finds less economic inequality, and more progressivity, than you’d find using the snapshot metrics. I would guess that not all members of the Berkeley Economics faculty, even limiting it to those in this room, agree 100% with the paper’s analysis. But the analysis would simply be right, leaving nothing further to discuss, if one fully granted the premises that, over the full lifecycle, people exercise consistent rational choice, in the presence of complete markets, leaving aside liquidity constraints.

In a standard analysis of consumer choice between, say, movies and pizza, people seek to equalize the marginal utility of the last unit they consume of each commodity. AKK applies the same approach to consumption in different periods, on the view – surely correct – that these are in effect separate “commodities,” each subject to its own declining marginal utility as one consumes more of them. But my piece argues that equalizing marginal utility across periods is considerably more challenging than doing so for movies and pizza, and also is subject to various heuristics & decisional metrics that would be irrational in the absence of real world decision costs. Plus, changes in information that aren’t fully insurable may have an impact.

I conclude that the underlying model, under which it basically doesn’t matter when one earns a dollar, in determining when one spends it, is not sufficiently descriptively accurate to be treated as more than an important orienting benchmark. Like such other “it doesn’t matter” theories as the Coase Theorem, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and the Modigliani-Miller Theorem, its value lies more in its showing us where to look for falsifying conditions, than in its full empirical validity.

Does this mean that we should keep on using traditional snapshot metrics such as income and consumption after all? Not at all. They still have all the flaws that AKK rightly attribute to them.

I conclude that there is no simple answer to the question of how lifetime, as opposed to shorter periods (themselves requiring further definition) should be used in measuring economic inequality, fiscal progressivity, or the question of why (and how much) inequality matters. Indeed, perhaps more important than any particular conclusion is the need for continuing methodological humility and agnosticism in how we think about these issues.

 

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Forthcoming publications

I have three new articles coming out shortly. The first, in Tax Notes International next Monday (but already available behind a paywall online) is “Digital Services Taxes vs. Pillar 1: Did the U.S. Catch a Break and Not Even Notice?”

The second, forthcoming in the Virginia Tax Review, is “Right Taxpayers, Wrong Taxpayers, Deduction-Selling, and Proxy Taxation.”

The third, forthcoming in a symposium issue of the Loyola of Los Angeles Law Review, is “Couples Neutrality, Marriage Neutrality, and Two-Earner Deductions.”

I haven't put any of them on SSRN as yet, but will do so shortly.

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

New articles, current and near-future

I had a sabbatical this past spring, and thus haven't been in a classroom since the end of fall 2024. One way I've used the time is in writing.

Leaving aside my memoir (available at https://www.amazon.com/Now-Then-Memoir/dp/B0FD424K9C/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2Z45SW78HPMOI&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.qDclUhMzvsVrpnD5L2tQq7HGEofxNIvs96-FGLn4dAc._XzxKpdAJk1wDl7ZgmUBu_wZVfq02XFq_YOC_f6Wcao&dib_tag=se&keywords=daniel+shaviro+now+is+now+and+then+is+then&qid=1752697305&sprefix=daniel+shavir%2Caps%2C121&sr=8-1), the first fruits of this activity are now moving towards publication. The Virginia Tax Review will soon be publishing a piece entitled Right Taxpayers, Wrong Taxpayers, Deduction-Selling, and Proxy Taxation. Plus, it is possible that Tax Notes, in the late summer or early fall, will publish a piece that is currently titled Did the United States Catch a Break and Not Even Notice? Assessing the Rise of Digital Services Taxes In Lieu of Pillar 1. Note that, in this article title, the question mark plays a crucial role - I am addressing a possibility, not making a definite assertion. 

Other topics that I've been working on, or will soon, include (1) a kind of mainly twentieth-century intellectual history of debate over the proper uses (or not) of the Haig-Simons income definition, (2) a piece on Social Security that explores the current intellectual and policy relevance of classic works on the subject by Paul Samuelson and Martin Feldstein,* and (3) possibly something about economic concerns that are adjacent to the not very economically (or philosophically) well-grounded notion of international tax nexus.

*I was critical in some respects of Feldstein's Social Security work when it came out, but I suppose that by now it has become "classic." Also, it has virtues as well as defects.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Another five-star Amazon review of my memoir

This one goes as follows: "Pure gold. Easily the most honest memoir I've ever read: bracingly real, sharply funny, and deeply human. Whether or not you're familiar with Dan's immense contributions in law and public policy, this is absolutely worth the read."

I don't know who posted this (since it's first-name only), but a fair inference from reading it would be that we (probably) do know each other.

Sunday, July 06, 2025

Review of my memoir on Amazon

 Unexpectedly warm and insightful portrait of the Baby Boom Generation. (5 stars)

Reviewed in the United States on June 29, 2025

Verified Purchase

Who knew that law professors were so funny? This is a warmhearted and introspective series of vignettes that provide an unexpected insight into the life of young professionals from the 1950s to the 1980s. Always entertaining and never boring, even when one might expect it to be. A great read.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Zero revenue cost from any and all tax cuts, forever and ever

I gather that the GOP score of the Senate tax bill DOES show budgetary costs as being lowered by the expiration of new provisions (such as the higher standard deduction) that it would add to the Internal Revenue Code. This blatantly contradicts its use of a "current-policy" baseline for 2017 provisions.


The Senate GOP's refusal to use a current-policy baseline for NEW provisions means that, the day after enactment, they could pass a new law making all of those expiring provisions permanent, and claim a budgetary cost of zero.


But why stop there? From now on, they should simply make ALL new tax breaks that they enact expire in a week. This would create next to zero revenue loss no matter what they were doing. Then, the next day, they could pass a new law making the same provisions permanent, at a zero revenue cost under the current-policy baseline. They could even, under this approach, repeal all U.S. federal taxes, and claim a zero budgetary cost.


Good work, guys.

Monday, June 02, 2025

Memoir now live

My memoir, "Now Is Now and Then Is Then," has gone live on Kindle for a mere $4.99. 

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Memoir now almost live

Today I self-published my memoir, Now Is Now and Then Is Then, on Kindle Direct Publishing. Kindle price $4.99, but not available for perhaps another 72 hours. I'll add a print-on-demand paperback option next week; couldn't do so today due to formatting issues.

Monday, March 31, 2025

Quandary

 Over the last few months, I've written a fairly interesting and unique literary work (if I do say so myself). It's a memoir, covering the period from my very first memory through age 29, when I both met my wife and got my first academic teaching job. Tentative title: "Portrait of an Academic as a Young Man."

The distinctive thing about is that it consists entirely of vignettes, which average about 500 words each. There are 114 in all, and the total is just under 58,000 words. I aim at a very rounded self-portrayal - as the cliche goes, warts and all. It focuses broadly on my emotional, social, romantic and intellectual development, culminating in my finding myself, and coming to understand why the path I ultimately chose was right for me. Each vignette places the reader in the room with me, and they generally end with a twist or payoff that brings out the essence of each of the rendered experiences.

The initial feedback that I've gotten from readers is extremely positive. E.g., I have been told that reading it is like having potato chips or chocolate chip cookies on the table – it’s always easy to read just one more vignette, and then the one after that.

Naturally, I would like to publish it. But my initial efforts have been frustrating. The university presses that I've contacted, where they have some idea of who I am, all said that it's not within their scope. And here are a couple of responses from agents to whom I sent it unsolicitedly:

"There is much to enjoy here .... But regardless of my personal feelings, I'm afraid this strikes me as a challenging project for which to find a publisher, your interesting insights notwithstanding. Afraid I'm going to pass here."

And: "You have an interesting idea for a book and there’s a lot to like about your approach. But, in the end, I’m afraid I [won't be able to interest a publisher.]"

I totally understand. These folks are trying to make a living by successfully placing books that will make money. And I suppose it's naive of me to think that literary merit and high readability wouldn't count for more. But still, it's disappointing re. the current state of the publishing world (not to mention, for the book's prospects).

Fingers crossed, as there are still other agents and book publishers to whom I've sent it. But I'm not enormously optimistic. My fallback plan is to self-publish it on Amazon Kindle, a free service that would offer it electronically (at a price of my choosing) andl as a print-on-demand physical book.

I'd love to hear from anyone who is interested in the manuscript or has any thoughts to offer about the project.

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

2024 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium

With the start of NYU's fall 2024 semester, I thought I should offer an update here on the public sessions at our 2024 Tax Policy Colloquium.

All sessions will meet on Tuesdays, from 4:15 to 6:15 pm, in Furman 310, and most or all will be followed with small group dinners that generally include the speakers.

Here is our schedule:

1) Tuesday, September 10 – Ellora Derenoncourt, Princeton University Economics Department. Wealth of Two Nations: The US Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020.

2) Tuesday, September 24 – Andrew Hayashi, University of Virginia Law School. The Federal Architecture of Income Inequality.

3) Tuesday, October 8 – Manasi Deshpande, University of Chicago Economics Department. The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment.

4) Tuesday, October 22 – Louis Kaplow, Harvard Law School. Optimal Income Taxation and Charitable Giving.

5) Tuesday, November 12 – Alex Zhang, Emory University School of Law. Fiscal Citizenship and Taxpayer Privacy.

6) Tuesday, November 26 – Natasha Sarin, Yale Law School. Broken Budgeting.

An exciting change for this year, compared to the last couple of years, is that the sessions will be on Zoom, and Zoom attendees will be able to participate live. The key change here is that New York State has changed its rules for live class attendance such that a class isn't disqualified as live instruction just because a remote participant asks a question.

I had stopped putting the sessions on Zoom, because that rule made the whole thing just too crazy and hard to manage. Under the prior regime, all that Zoom attendees could do was post a comment that I would then have to read for them. That I found just too difficult while also running a live queue, but I can certainly handle combining my live queue with Zoom attendees raising their hands to ask questions.

Thursday, August 08, 2024

Chat GPT's progress over the last year and a half

About 18 months ago (I remember the time because I was visiting at U Va Law School), I briefly got interested in how Chat GPT makes things up. E.g., I asked it what my novel Getting It is about. It confabulated in response that it's about the need for broad-based tax reform, etcetera. (Which, needless to say, it is not - the program generalized from superficial knowledge of my other work.)

Since I gather that Chat GPT improves exponentially over time, I decided just now to give it another try. Here is what I got regarding Getting It:

"Getting It" by Daniel Shaviro is a satirical novel that delves into the life of a Wall Street tax lawyer named Bill Doberman. The story explores themes of ambition, greed, and the pursuit of success in a corporate world where ethics often take a backseat to self-interest.

"Bill Doberman is the novel’s protagonist, a middle-aged lawyer working for a prestigious Manhattan law firm. Despite his outward success, Bill is deeply dissatisfied with his life. He feels stuck in a career that he once thought would bring him fulfillment, but instead, he finds it hollow and unfulfilling. The novel follows his journey as he navigates the cutthroat world of corporate law, where manipulation and deceit are commonplace, and personal and professional lives intertwine in complex and often damaging ways.

"As Bill struggles with his own moral compass, he becomes increasingly aware of the compromises he has made to "get it"—success, wealth, and status. The novel critiques the American Dream by portraying how its pursuit can lead to moral and personal decay.

"Shaviro uses sharp wit and dark humor to portray the absurdity of the corporate world, making "Getting It" not only a commentary on the legal profession but also a broader critique of contemporary society's values."

[Back to me] Okay, this comes closer than before. But a few quibbles: (a) Doberman is a DC, not a Wall Street lawyer, (b) he is not a tax lawyer, (c) he is young not middle-aged, and (d) he does not become dissatisfied with the cutthroat world he inhabits. That may come later, the ending hints, but only due to the limited nature of what he has won. And related to this last point, hopefully it's less cliched in the actual novel to have us, but not him, understand how hollow and unfulfilling his "triumphs" are.

So evidently Chat GPT is still fantasizing and filling in the gaps, but it's coming closer than it did before.

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Good news and bad news from the Supreme Court's Moore decision

Today the Supreme Court released its decision in Moore v. United States, upholding the 2017 tax act's mandatory repatriation tax (MRT) on foreign source income (FSI) of American-controlled foreign corporations. The MRT was eminently sensible in principle, although far from perfectly designed in practice, in that the applicable FSI had previously been subject to deferral - i.e., it would be taxed to the US shareholders upon repatriation. Cashing out the deferred tax when you eliminate it, even if at a reduced rate, is very difficult to argue against on policy grounds.

Right-wing activists nonetheless challenged the MRT here on the grounds that (a) the income was unrealized by the taxpayer, and (b) per the long-discredited 1920 Supreme Court case of Eisner v. Macomber, realization is constitutionally mandated for a tax on income to fall within the protective scope of the 16th Amendment.

While the Supreme Court may initially have granted certiorari in response to right-wing fulmination about shutting down the constitutionality of unapportioned wealth taxes and extension of the federal income tax to unrealized gains on publicly traded assets before such taxes were even close to adoption, it soon became clear that the case was a potential nuclear weapon wiping out trillions of dollars of revenue - e.g, from original issue discount (OID) bonds or the flow-through taxation of partnerships. And this was a nuclear weapon that even the likes of Paul Ryan thought it would be insane to set off.

The taxpayers' advocates sufficiently sniffed the air around them to realize that they could only win the case (if at all) by making very limited claims that targeted the MRT in particular while distinguishing it from taxing partnerships, using subpart F to tax US corporations on their controlled foreign affiliates' (mainly passive) income, etc. While this sufficiently limited their theory's "blast radius" (as the majority opinion puts it) to keep its adoption by the court from being immediately catastrophic, it also fatally surrendered coherence and credibility. The provisions that the taxpayers agreed were constitutional simply could not be distinguished from the MRT.

Good news: the Supreme Court upheld the MRT in a quite sensibly written opinion by Justice Kavanaugh. The vote was 7-2. What the opinion does is say that the MRT is not about realization at all: the income being taxed unambiguously has been recognized at the entity level. So the case is merely about apportionment, not realization. The opinion notes longstanding precedents that permit an entity's income to be taxed either at the entity level or directly to the owners. And, given the basis for decision, it holds that issues about taxing unrealized income simply aren't reached here.

Bad news: the Supreme Court has at least 4 votes (and possibly as many as 6) in support of the proposition that Eisner v. Macomber's idiotic and long-renounced "realization / severance" requirement for treating economic income as taxable income is indeed binding constitutional law. Justice Thomas, joined by Justice Gorsuch, offers his usual brand of dishonestly cooked "history" in support of the taxpayer in Moore on realization grounds. Meanwhile, Justice Barrett, joined by Justice Alito, concurs only in the judgment, and only on the ground that the taxpayers' concessions in distinguishing the MRT made their position unsustainable.

Will the Court soon hold that it is unconstitutional to tax income from OID bonds, on the ground that it hasn't been realized? Or if not income from OID bonds, then at least the unrealized gains of very wealthy individuals, as per a bill recently introduced by Senate Finance Chair Wyden? There may well be 4 votes for striking down one or both of such provisions.

Kavanaugh's opinion expressly declines to reach that question, rightly noting that it's unnecessary to decide Moore. One can reasonably presume that both he and Chief Justice Roberts are potential 5th and 6th votes for holding that realization is constitutionally required. Meanwhile, only Justice Jackson, in a concurring opinion that no other justice joined, stated forthrightly that there is no realization requirement in the 16th Amendment.

So let us express relief about the present, along with continued concern about the future.

Monday, April 01, 2024

Henry Simons and pre-World War libertarianism.

 I just posted this piece on a libertarian-affiliated U of Chicago website. Based on a 2013 article that I wrote concerning Henry Simons. It discusses the question of why a Friedrich Hayek-affiliated "classical liberal" would have supported both vigorous anti-monopoly enforcement and a high-rate progressive income tax - positions that are anathema to the likes of (say) a Richard Epstein or Milton Friedman (if he were still alive) today.