Tuesday, July 07, 2020

The new baseball rule for extra innings

When the 2020 baseball season finally starts (i.e., if the pandemic doesn't stop it), there will be a new rule at the major league level, under which, for extra innings, each team will start with a runner at second base. The idea is to make scoring more likely, hence shortening the games that burn out teams' pitching staffs while also asking too much of the fans. (I certainly can't follow Mets' night games for very long, if at all.)

I'm not inherently against the new rule either on tradition grounds or because it's so arbitrary. To me, it's an empirical question of how it affects the fan experience of following the games. But in that regard, I wonder if it will backfire. We'll see.

One possibly interesting strategic element follows from the fact that the runner who starts out on second base is the one who made the last out in the previous inning. (Or his lineup replacement.) Suppose the Mets had a speedy outfielder batting in the ninth, with two outs, no one on base, and Wilson Ramos on deck. Would the other team consider walking the outfielder to pitch to Ramos, just so he could make the last out? He is said to be the slowest runner in baseball, so the idea would be to handicap the Mets if the game went to extra innings, unless they were willing to sub him out.

But on to the big problem. What worries me about the rule is that it might lead to boring one-run strategies. That is, have the extra inning's first batter bunt the free baserunner over to third, with the next one bunting him home. That would be little fun to watch if it happened too frequently. And when it did succeed, there would be two outs and no one on base, limiting further scoring and excitement.

Suppose the visiting team fails to score in the top of the inning, or scores exactly one run.  That would put a huge premium on one-run strategies in the bottom of the inning, such as bunt-bunt with the runner on second.

But if you think about it recursively, then in the top of the inning the visiting manager is going to be anticipating what the home manager might do in the bottom of the inning. Scoring zero runs in the top, as a consequence of seeking to maximize expected runs but falling short, leaves one open to the home team manager's getting the relatively easy run, in the bottom of the inning, by following the boring strategy.

To put it differently, a visiting manager with a runner on second base and no outs becomes more likely to follow a one-run strategy once he knows that the home manager will also start out with a runner on second base.

Again, it's an empirical question whether the new rule will backfire in this way. Good idea to try it out in a 60-game season, so it can be discarded or tweaked if it malfunctions.


Anonymous said...


It Tears me Up Whenever we receive complaints from People About Their Experience With the Hackers They Met Before They Heard about us.
These Days There Are alot of Hackers Online, You Just Have to Be Careful about who you meet for help, because many people now don't really know who to ask for help anymore but there is an actual solution to that which I am giving you for free, Trust Me You Don't Wanna go out there seeking for Hackers Yourself, Because the probability of getting a Real Hacker Out there Is Very Slim . ❌❌ ❌ Most Of Them are actually not who they say they're, they are just out there to Rip people Off, Trust Me You Don’t Wanna Risk It. You Can Always Identify Them With Their False Advertisements and False Testimonies Trying To Lure you Into their Arms, And most of them use yahoomails, gmails and other cheap email providers which could easily expose their vulnerabilities, Please Don’t Fall For Them🚷 Come To Think Of It, Why would a Legit Hacker Be using a gmail or a cheap email provider that exposes his vulnerabilities????⚠️⚠️⚠️
Well, Our Purpose Here Is To Link You Up With Top Notched Legit Hackers With Great Online Reputations and Impressive LinkedIn Profiles That’ll Blow Your Mind. Trust Me, You Don’t Wanna Miss This Great Opportunity.

🔥 ☑️ COMPOSITE CYBER SECURITY SPECIALISTS are the Answers to your PRAYERS . We are here to Provide you with The BEST and FASTEST Hackers that would get your Job Done as Fast as possible. 🔥 🔥

☑️All our Specialists are well experienced in their various niches with Great Skills, Technical Hacking Strategies And Positive Online Reputations And Recommendations🔘
They hail from a proven track record and have cracked even the toughest of barriers to intrude and capture all relevant data needed by our Clients. 🔥 🔥

We have Digital Forensic Specialists⚡️, Certified Ethical Hackers⚡️, Software Engineers⚡️, Cyber Security Experts⚡️, Private investigators and more⚡️⚡️. Our Goal is to make your digital life secure, safe and hassle free by Linking you Up With these great Professionals such as JACK CABLE, ARNE SWINNEN, SEAN MELIA, DAWID CZAGAN, BEN SADEGHIPOUR And More. These Professionals are Well Reserved Professionals who are always ready to Handle your job with great energy and swift response so that your problems can be solved very quickly.
All You Need to Do is to send us a mail and we’ll Assign any of these specialists to Handle your Job immediately. ⚡️⚡️⚡️

☑️ Below Is A List Of Our Major Services:
▪️ PHONE HACKING & CLONING (giving you 📱 Unnoticeable access to everything Happening on the Target’s Phone)
▪️BITCOIN MINING ⛏ And lot More.

✅ COMPOSITE CYBER SECURITY SPECIALISTS are Basically the ANSWERS to your PRAYERS. Trust Me, You Don’t Wanna Miss Out This Great Experience.


🔘2020 © composite cybersecurity specialists
🔘Want faster service? Contact us!
🔘All Rights Reserved ®️

Mr Abdullah Ibrahim said...

Fast cash loan offer for you today at just 2% interest rate,
both long and short term cash of all amounts and currencies, \
no collateral required. We give out from a minimum range of
$2000 to a maximum of $20 million.We are certified and your
privacy is 100% safe with us Apply now for your instant approval
and transfer approval process takes just 3 hours. contact us now
I'll advise you can
contact us via email at abdullahibrahimlender@gmail.com
whatspp Number +918929490461
\Mr Abdullah Ibrahim

Danny Scott said...

Get $5,500 USD every day, for six months!

See how it works
Do you know you can hack into any Credit cards machine with a hacked Credit cards??
Make up your mind before applying, straight deal...

Order for a blank Credit cards now and get millions within a week!: contact us
via email address:: {Legitblankcardsonline@gmail.com}

We have specially programmed Credits Cards that can be use to hack Credit cards Machines
Nation Wide, the Credits Cards can be used to withdraw at any Credits Cards or swipe Machines, at
Stores and POS Machines. We sell this cards to all our customers and interested
buyers worldwide, the Credit Card has a daily withdrawal limit of $5,500 at any Credit cards Machines
and up to $50,000 spending limit in stores depending on the kind of card
you order for. Credits Cards Can also be used in any other cyber hack{Services}, we are here for you anytime any day.

Here is our price lists for the Credits Cards:

Cards that withdraw $5,500 per day costs $250 USD
Cards that withdraw $10,000 per day costs $850 USD
Cards that withdraw $35,000 per day costs $2,200 USD
Cards that withdraw $50,000 per day costs $5,500 USD
Cards that withdraw $100,000 per day costs $8,500 USD

make up your mind before applying, straight deal!!!

The price include shipping fees and charges, order now: contact us via
email address:: {Legitblankcardsonline@gmail.com} Or
Add us on Whatsapp [+13473848100]

Laura Mildred said...

Am Laura Mildred by name, i was diagnosed with Herpes 4 years ago i lived in pain with the knowledge that i wasn't going to ever be well again i contacted so many herbal doctors on this issue and wasted a large sum of money but my condition never got better i was determined to get my life back so one day i saw Mr. Morrison Hansen post on how Dr. Emu saved him from Herpes with herbal medicine i contacted Dr. Emu on his Email: Emutemple@gmail.com we spoke on the issue i told him all that i went through and he told me not to worry that everything will be fine again so he prepared the medicine and send it to me and told me how to use it, after 14 days of usage I went to see the doctor for test,then the result was negative, am the happiest woman on earth now thanks to Dr. Emu God bless you. Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com Whats-app or Call him: +2347012841542

Ric Clayton said...

I really want to thank Dr Emu for saving my marriage. My wife really treated me badly and left home for almost 3 month this got me sick and confused. Then I told my friend about how my wife has changed towards me. Then she told me to contact Dr Emu that he will help me bring back my wife and change her back to a good woman. I never believed in all this but I gave it a try. Dr Emu casted a spell of return of love on her, and my wife came back home for forgiveness and today we are happy again. If you are going through any relationship stress or you want back your Ex or Divorce husband you can contact his whatsapp +2347012841542 or email emutemple@gmail.com website: Https://emutemple.wordpress.com/ Https://web.facebook.com/Emu-Temple-104891335203341

Christian Baker said...

Do My Homework is a reputable academic company that provides students with reliable and efficient homework assistance. The company is dedicated to ensuring that students receive the academic support they need to succeed in their studies. With a team of highly qualified and experienced tutors, Do My Homework has become a go-to resource for students looking for help with their homework.

The company is known for its 24/7 availability, which means that students can access homework help at any time of the day or night. The tutors are always on standby to help students with any questions or challenges they may be facing, ensuring that they can complete their assignments on time.