Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Defending (?!) Bush's Social Security dodge at his press conference

Other bloggers, such as Timothy Noah, Chris Suellentrop, and Sam Rosenfeld, have been harsh on President Bush for flatly refusing to say anything meaningful about Social Security benefit cuts at his press conference. Certainly, as an aesthetic matter, it seems to have been the usual arrogant frat boy routine and contempt for democratic openness that make him unwatchable. Plus there were hints of triangulating, in the Clintonian sense of trying to make the Republican Congress take the blame for proposing benefit cuts.
But - Bush did appear to acknowledge, however obliquely, that benefit cuts are necessary, and that they are on the table other than for current and near-retirees. (I would put these folks' benefits on the chopping block too, presumably through means-testing to avoid impact on those who have too little else, but I recognize that this is politically beyond the pale.)
I interpret him as saying that it's too soon to be at all frank and open about benefit cuts, which to have a chance would have to be proposed further down the road. And if this is the best political strategy for moving a couple of steps back towards fiscal balance, then, however unedifying, there is something to be said for it.
Not to say that the Social Security changes will move us towards fiscal balance, or that individual accounts have anything to do with such a move, but still let's be fair at this point.
One of the big controversies on the blogosphere over the last few days has been whether there really is a Social Security crisis when the benefits are projected as lasting for a while. Alas, this debate uses an arbitrary measure, the Social Security Trust Fund, of when the money is officially deemed to run out, wholly aside from the actual financial markets question of when we can't raise the money to pay benefits without hyper-inflation. Alternatively, bloggers debate whether it is tactically wise for the Democrats to say that the Social Security funding crisis Bush keeps invoking for political cover is a sham. Should they instead be "proactive" by saying yes it's real, but let's do X, Y, and Z instead of individual accounts? This choice in turn is getting debated mainly based on whether there has been too much political rhetoric over the last 10+ years about the crisis for the Dems to change the message now. (See, for example, Andrew Samwick and the others he mentions.) So this is a debate about perception, not substance.
Granted, perceptions are important, as are political tactics, especially given how the Bush team plays ball. But I would like to see more recognition of the important substantive point, which is that we face a serious overall fiscal crisis to which rising Social Security benefits (i.e. growing faster than the economy due to increasing life expectancies) are a meaningful contributor. So we need to address the overall fiscal problem no matter what games we play with accounting fictions (or more charitably, precommitment tools) such as the "Social Security Trust Fund." True, Medicare, or more broadly unsustainably rising healthcare spending, is the biggest problem, and one that will have to be addressed no matter what. But, to quote my mother-in-law, "'Every little bit helps,' said the old lady as she spit in the ocean." It certainly would be worthwhile to address Social Security if addressing it meant significantly narrowing its $10 trillion fiscal gap. And the fact that we have other, bigger problems actually increases the importance of addressing this piece (since we have no slack), even if suggesting that this is not the most logical place to start.
All this being said, I do wonder if Bush's punt to the Congress, rather than merely being smart tactics, actually shows a lack of nerve (or clout as he heads towards lame duck status with mediocre approval ratings) that suggests nothing will happen after all.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

No run of the mill blog here! Mega compliments to you and your brain.
car part orange county

Anonymous said...

Wuzzz up? was just blogging and saw your blog and thought it was nice so I should drop in and say Wuzzz up?. Anyways I would be interested in exchanging links if you are up for it.

Anonymous said...

Well I just got back from racquetball and I am beat. I am currently doing some research and stumbled across your blog. Which makes me laugh really. The web can certainly land you off base sometimes. Even though your site is not completely related I think it is a cool blog. I have read back through the archives and lots of people make some good points. Well I have been on-line forever it seems. I need to continue to plug away at texas home owner insurance. If you have the energy swing by http://www.homeowner-insurance-quote.com. I try to update my site weekly (most of the time)and maybe you will see something you like. I already grabbed your URL and put it in my favorites. If you do not mind I will be back again. Mint job!

Anonymous said...

Hi, I was out blogging and found your aite. It certainly got my attention and interest. I was looking for Monitors
information and even though this isn't a perfect match I enjoyed your site. Thanks for the read!

Anonymous said...


car audio Car Buying - How To Buy A Car Without Getting Ripped Off!

Every Dollar Saving Trick, Every Scam-Stopping Tip, And Every Must-Know Bit Of Information You Need For Your New Car. Looking To Buy Car But Don't Want To Pay More Money Then You Have To?

The first thing you need to realize when going to a dealership to buy a car is this. The salesman's agenda is to make the best commission possible. Your agenda is to get the best deal possible. Car Buying car audio

Anonymous said...

how do you come with so many ideas. i am trying to write on my no fax payday loans , but can get much out of it .
hope this helps me out. thanxs. please check my blog at no fax payday loans

Joel said...

Auto Insurance Guidence

Did you know that there are several proven methods to save hundreds of dollars from your annual premium?
Car insurance companies will quote high rates by default so it is very important to provide insurance companies with accurate information about you when comparing quotes. Furthermore if your financial status allows you to raise your deductible, just a bit, many insurance companies will quote lower rates.
Find out more money saving tips, you may even be surprised that you haven't thought about them yourself.
To read more from this article visit: Learn how to get cheap auto insurance quotes.

Anonymous said...

Hi there Blogger, a real useful blog.Keep with the good work.
If you have a moment, please visit my auto insurance on line quotes site.
I send you warm regards and wishes of continued success.

Anonymous said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my auto insurance quotes vancouver washington site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my auto insurance texas quotes site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a auto quote insurance
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

Anonymous said...

Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my automobile insurance california site.
Good luck!

Anonymous said...

Cool Blog! If you get a chance I would like to invite you to visit the following grille guards blog, it is cool to!

Anonymous said...

I am here because of search results for blogs with a related topic to mine.
Please,accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
I have a automobile insurance service driver vehicle site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

Anonymous said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my average texas homeowners insurance site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

Cool Blog! If you get a chance I would like to invite you to visit the following grille guards blog, it is cool to!

Anonymous said...

Cool Blog! If you get a chance I would like to invite you to visit the following truck blog, it is cool to!

Anonymous said...

Cool Blog! If you get a chance I would like to invite you to visit the following covers blog, it is cool to!

Anonymous said...

I was searching blogs,and I found yours.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my best insurance company site.
Have a good day!

Anonymous said...

Well done!
[url=http://iorpqvda.com/liuh/mipz.html]My homepage[/url] | [url=http://rxivmfxl.com/fpda/lbxu.html]Cool site[/url]

Anonymous said...

Well done!
My homepage | Please visit

Anonymous said...

Well done!
http://iorpqvda.com/liuh/mipz.html | http://tqyuysyi.com/uikp/nfmj.html

Anonymous said...

A fantastic blog yours. Keep it up.
If you have a moment, please visit my small business credit card site.
I send you warm regards and wish you continued success.

Anonymous said...

Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my business life insurance site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my buy car cheap insurance online site.
Have a great day!

Mobile app development company said...


Amazing article with complete knowledge. Thanks for sharing. I want to share information about the iOS app development company in Pune. One of the distinguishing features of iOS app development in Pune is the emphasis on customization. Companies understand the unique needs of clients and tailor solutions to create bespoke iOS applications that align perfectly with business requirements.